Despite a number of polls that show Sen. Kerry w/ more electoral votes than the President, the pressure is on him to "change the race" tonight. I hope he does, but I still don't think it matters. He just needs to avoid catastrophe.
Am I wrong to be wondering if the timing of today's major offensive into Samarra is politically motivated?
For those who think the President has locked up re-election, I encourage your viewership of American Research Group's new polling data. With polls from all 50 states conducted this month, the count stands at:
President Bush: 253 Electoral Votes
Senator Kerry: 270 Electoral Votes
Tied: 15 Electoral Votes (WI and WV)
It should be noted that both candidates are in close races (within the poll margin of error) for about 1/2 of their predicted EVs. Regardless, Kerry should have no problem getting to the 330 I've been predicting for months.
John Kerry was terrific on Letterman last night. He was relaxed, funny, and on message. And finally, he has a compelling message on Iraq. In a speech yesterday he provided the best articulation of the President’s poor leadership and poor choices.
The President claims it is the centerpiece of his war on terror. In fact, Iraq was a profound diversion from that war and the battle against our greatest enemy, Osama bin Laden and the terrorists. Invading Iraq has created a crisis of historic proportions and, if we do not change course, there is the prospect of a war with no end in sight….
In Iraq, this administration has consistently over-promised and under-performed. This policy has been plagued by a lack of planning, an absence of candor, arrogance and outright incompetence. And the President has held no one accountable, including himself.
Sen. Kerry’s criticism of the President is dead on, and it’s good to see him step it up. He faces the continuing challenge of trying to describe a plan for Iraq, though it is impossible to guess what the situation there will be by the time he is elected. He’ll face criticism for that, but a vague outline of coalition building is better than no clue at all.
His speech has played well in the press, and I think this could be the turning point, when we finally stop focusing on forged documents and lying veterans, and pay attention to the ever-growing quagmire in Iraq.
Sen. Zell Miller is an idiot. If his hate-filled speech rife with deception wasn't enough evidence, check out his interview on Hardball following his speech. Here's a great exerpt:
Get out of my face. If you are going to ask me a question, step back and let me answer. I wish we lived in the day where you could challenge a person to a duel.
What a statesman. Here's the link to MSN Video.
In the past few weeks, the election seems to have turned from one where it was Kerry's to lose to one where the President's reelection appears more and more likely. Part of this can no doubt be attributed to the Swift Boat ads and the media's unwillingness to identify them as the lies they are. But there is a broader element at play, and I think the Republican National Convention is demonstrating it.
They have a vicious noise machine of political operatives throughout their organization (but never the President) who immediately react to any misstep by Kerry. The "rapid response team" the Republicans operated at the DNC is unmatched by Democrats this week. This constant spin wears down journalists who seem less and less willing to call them on their lies. On CNBC the Vice President recently denied saying that it was "pretty well confirmed" that Mohammed Atta met with Iraqis (this is the Iraq/Al Qaeda connection he had repeatedly cited even after evidence that Atta wasn't in Prague at the time of the meeting). He used those exact words on Meet the Press in December of 2001.
The reporter, flustered for a moment, tried to press him on it, but without having prepared the clip, simply allowed him to repeat his denial. Sure, this story hits the blogsphere, but it is besieged by stories about THK telling a reporter to "shove it" or Kerry's Vietnam service record. Whether a coordinated strategy or not, the Republicans seem to deluge the media with myriad claims about John Kerry and George Bush. Overwhelmed, the media can't provide an appropriate filter, and enough of the lies and misleading statements get through to have an effect. Are the Democrats unwilling to play this game, or are we just no good at it?
chabel.net loves his brother
